Monday, August 5, 2013

QB No. 3: Peyton Manning

My number three quarterback coming into the 2013 season is going to be Peyton Manning. Manning has seen it all in his 16-year career. He is a 4-time MVP, a 12-time Pro Bowler, and perhaps most importantly a Super Bowl Champion, and MVP in that particular SB. He's thrown for over 4,000 yards in 12 of the 14 seasons that he's actually played in. His MVP seasons were spectacular, especially the '04 campaign. That year he threw for 4,500 yards while tossing 49 TD and only 10 INT! (At the time, he broke the single-season TD record)

The bugaboo for Peyton has always been the postseason. I don't think many people could argue for someone other than Peyton Manning as the greatest REGULAR SEASON QB in NFL history. Maybe Brett Favre. Maybe. But for all his greatness, and everyone acknowledges his greatness, he's only managed nine playoff wins compared to eleven losses. Dumbfounding, no? And it's not as if the talent hasn't been great around him. Okay, the first couple of playoff appearances are excusable. But once the years of Harrison, Wayne, and Clark arrived, he couldn't ask for better weapons. In his peak years in Indy, '02-'10, he could only manage two Super Bowl appearances. I honestly can't figure out why, but he does seem to be worse in playoff games. He seems to make more mistakes then we're used to seeing, more turnovers. Even last year, with the Broncos, Manning and the Broncos were heavily favored against the Baltimore Ravens at home. He played fairly well, but threw two costly INT. One of which set up the game-winning FG for Baltimore. This season the Broncos added Wes Welker, who should contribute to an already stacked WR corps. The pressure is once again on Manning because the Broncos are heavy favorites to reach the Super Bowl, and one of the favorites to win it all.

Let's not get it twisted. I love Peyton Manning. It's just that when you're ranking guys in the top three you have to nitpick a little bit. The only reasons I can dock Peyton from being number one or two have to do with his age/injury concerns over his neck, as well as his playoff performances. Both in the past and recent appearances. This guy is without question a first-ballot Hall of Famer, one of the "good" guys in the sport, and personally one of my favorite QB I've had the privilege to watch over the years. But for the 2013 season, I believe there are two guys that I'd rather have.

Projections: 4,750 yards, 44 TD, 13 INT

Sunday, August 4, 2013

QB No. 4: Drew Brees

My number four quarterback entering the 2013 season is Drew Brees. Since arriving in New Orleans, all Brees has done is led the Saints to their first ever Super Bowl title, thrown for 5,000 yards in a season three times, and broken Dan Marino's single-season passing record. His revival with the Saints established him among the game's elite quarterbacks.

Brees orchestrates one of the highest-octane, most efficient offense we've seen in pro football. He squashed the notion that little guys can't be quarterbacks at a high level. Standing at just six feet tall, Brees is still one of the most, and in my opinion the most, accurate quarterbacks in the NFL today. He's had four seasons of 67% completion rate or more since arriving in New Orleans, and holds a career rate of 65%. In that Super Bowl run back in 2009 Brees proved he could come up clutch in the biggest games, and threw 8 TD to 0 INT, while completing 70% of his passes, during their 3-game run. In the Super Bowl, he out-shined Peyton Manning, and completed 32 of 39 passes for a whopping 82% completion rating.

In the years since the Super Bowl, Brees has had to try and overcome the Saints defense, which has routinely been putrid. He's had tremendous statistical years, including the 5,476 yard, 46 TD 2011 season, but only one playoff win since that Super Bowl season. Perhaps it is because of the leaky defense, but it seems like Brees is taking more chances in the last few years, which has led to a staggering increase in his interception totals. He's totaled 55 INT the last three seasons! But again, I put much of that on him having to do so much for a mediocre football team.

There's no question that this guy is elite, but he's still not better than the top 3.

Projections: 4,700 yards, 41 TD, 15 INT


Saturday, August 3, 2013

QB No. 5: Eli Manning

Here we are, the Top Five QB I would want entering the 2013 season! Eli Manning is my number five quarterback. Eli is a two-time Super Bowl champion, two-time SB MVP, and three-time Pro Bowler. He's already accomplished a heck of a lot in his 10 years in the league.

Eli Manning's greatest work has come in the postseason. In particular, the 2007 and 2011 postseasons. Prior to the 2007 postseason, Eli was viewed as a mediocre QB, with a lot of hype to live up to. During that first Super Bowl run, Manning threw 6 TD to only 1 INT, and perhaps made one of the most clutch throws in Super Bowl history (the David Tyree catch).

Some thought he would've carried that success into the regular season next year, and for years to come, but he sort of continued to put up decent, yet unspectacular stats. That is, until the 2011 season. That year, Manning shattered his single-season passing yard mark, with 4,900 yards. He also threw 29 TD compared to 16 INT. And in the postseason, Eli was even more amazing than his first go-around. They rolled through the Falcons and Packers before surviving the 49ers and Patriots to win the Super Bowl. Eli, who won SB MVP again, threw for 1,200 yards, 9TD, and only 1INT throughout the Super Bowl run.

Now Eli did have a down year a season ago, failing to reach 4,000 yards passing, and failing to reach the defending champs to the playoffs at all. Injuries played a factor for the Giants undoubtedly, especially on defense. His main target Hakeem Nicks was nicked up all season long, and also missed three games. The Giants season was baffling to say the least. It seemed like they'd play their best ball against the best teams, crushing the Packers, Saints, 49ers, as well as surviving the Buccaneers and Redskins. But they also lost many games that they were favored to win. And Manning followed that trend as well. You still see some inconsistency in Eli's game, and he's still turnover-prone. He makes too many risky throws. But the bottom line is that he comes up clutch more often than not. Even in a down year last year, he still proved it (week 2 against Tampa Bay: down 14 late in the fourth, Eli led three straight TD drives to win the game). Now, after a disappointing season, I expect Manning and the Giants to bounce back in a big way.

Projections: 4,500 yards, 32 TD, and 14 INT

Friday, August 2, 2013

QB No. 6: Ben Roethlisberger

Coming in at number six is "Big" Ben Roethlisberger. He enters 2013 after a somewhat down season for him and the Steelers. They failed to reach the postseason, and Big Ben was well under 4,000 yards passing. Yet, he was pretty efficient with those throws, throwing 26 TD to only 8 INT.

Roethlisberger ranks highly on my list for what he's accomplished, and for how difficult a matchup he is every single week. First off, he is a two-time Super Bowl champion. Yes, the first one he escaped with. Lucky son of a... well you know. In his second Super Bowl against the Cardinals, Roethlisberger played solid, if unspectacular. He lost in his third Super Bowl appearance, but just getting to three Super Bowls in 10 years is an accomplishment. The most difficult part about matching up against Roethlisberger has to be his ability to avoid sacks and continue to extend the play and make plays down the field. Nobody does it better in the game today. It may not translate into stats, but rest assured, these "small" plays, are winning plays. They keep drives alive. They create more scoring chances. Plus, they keep opposing defense on the field, which over four quarters will eventually wear them down.

Now, a big question mark with Big Ben is always his health. He never seems to be able to play a full 16 games. Part of that is due to what I stated above; his ability to take hits, stay on his feet and make plays down the field. Part of it is due to him holding onto the football way too long, and taking way too many sacks. The other thing is that he's been on historically "run-first" teams, with great defenses backing him up. A little bit like Flacco in that regard. Not expected to do as much as the ELITE QB, thus his stats never look that spectacular.

But there's no question. This guy makes plays when it matters most. He is a two-time Super Bowl champion. He is one of the most difficult quarterbacks to game-plan against. When push comes to shove, there are few I'd rather have in a winner-take-all situation.

Projections: 3,800 yards, 26 TD, 12 INT

Thursday, August 1, 2013

QB No. 7: Joe Flacco

Coming in at number seven on my quarterback countdown is reigning Super Bowl champion Joe Flacco.  Flacco had a magical postseason run with the Ravens last year, one that earned him a huge pay day. Now the question is, will he be able to build off last year's great postseason and take the step into the elite, or at least upper echelon of quarterbacks?

Let me start by saying that I believe he is on the Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger track. He's a guy that many have ridiculed as not being even a capable starting quarterback in the past. I could've put him as a high as number five on my list, but I will defer slightly to the other two, more veteran quarterbacks. That supernatural run last year had to have proved many of his doubters wrong.

Let's put some things in perspective. Joe Flacco is now entering his 6th season, the year after winning his Super Bowl. Eli Manning was entering his 5th season after winning the Super Bowl. But take a look at Manning's stats his first FIVE full seasons. Pretty mediocre, and dare I say slightly worse than Flacco's. Manning threw for 119 TD and 72 INT in five years. Flacco threw for 102 TD and 56 INT. And believe it or not, Flacco threw for slightly more yards than Eli. Big Ben entered his 6th season after winning his 2nd Super Bowl. Again, compare the stats of their first five years. Flacco's stats edge Big Ben's in every category in their first five years. And we all know that Big Ben didn't really do anything when the Steelers won that first Super Bowl against Seattle.

My point is that I think Flacco is on an eerily similar path to those two guys. Both of them saw major statisitical leaps after they won those Super Bowls, and after years 5 and 6. He's been in the 3,600-3,800 yard range. I see that leaping into the 4,000+ area. People want to discredit Flacco and say "he played with the great Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, who saved many a games for Flacco." Funny how those same people in about Week 10 last year were saying this Ravens team had no shot because "their defense isn't what it once was". I'm sorry, you can't have it both ways. You were right to criticize the defense because it's true, it wasn't nearly as good as it used to be. In fact, in every statistical category the Ravens D ranked out as middle-of-the road. And for whatever it's worth, once the Ravens made the switch to Jim Caldwell as the OC, Flacco had more free reign, and played lights-out football, with the exception of the first game under Caldwell in week 15 versus the Broncos.

The bottom line for me is that Flacco still struggles with accuracy at times, and I worry about who he's going to be throwing to this year, after losing Pitta and Boldin. No question, that "Mile High Miracle" play bailed Flacco and the Ravens out last year. If not for that play, we'd still be looking at Flacco in a fairly mediocre way. But it happened. Hmmm... kinda like the NBA Finals Game 6 mad scramble at the end, and Ray Allen somehow knocks down the game-tying three with only a few seconds left. Were it not for that shot, we'd also be looking at Lebron James differently. But I digress. That's sports. Miracles happen. Move on.

Projections: 4,200 yards 27 TD, 13 INT


Wednesday, July 31, 2013

QB No. 8: Matt Ryan

The number eight spot was a tough rank this year. For me, it came down to Eli Manning, Joe Flacco or Matt Ryan. While, it is a "what have you done for me lately" league, you can't completely ignore past success. So while Matt Ryan was undoubtedly better in the regular season, and actually won his first postseason game last year, he wasn't better than Flacco, and I'd still rank Eli Manning over Ryan.

Let's start with the good from Ryan. And there's a lot of it. It looked as if, in year 5, Ryan finally took that next step. He's always been a pretty efficient quarterback. He's never thrown more than 14 interceptions in a season. And in 2011, when he led the Falcons to a 13-3 record and home-field advantage, Ryan only threw nine interceptions. Over the last three seasons he has a 2.5:1 TD-INT ratio. But last season he threw for 4,700 yards, 32 TD, and completed 68% of his passes.

Perhaps most importantly, Ryan finally performed well in the postseason. Against the Seattle Seahawks, Ryan threw for 250 yards, 3TD, and 2 INT, but most importantly led the Falcons on a game-winning drive with about 30 seconds left to stun Seattle. The following week was just as impressive, going against the 49ers defense. He threw for 395 yards, 3TD, and 1INT, but the Falcons fell short 24-28.

As much as last season was an improvement for Ryan, we still can't forget the previous couple of seasons. Again, he's always been fine in the regular season. He's like Peyton Manning in that regard. Obviously not to that statistical level, but just in terms of how he plays well overall in the regular season, but once the playoffs arrive it's anyone's guess as to what he'll do. In 2011, the Falcons were the number one seed and hosting the Packers in the Divisional Round. The Packers rolled into Atlanta and trounced Matt Ryan's team, 48-21! Ryan was pretty poor, and the ultimate check-down master, throwing for only 186 yards, 1TD, and 2INT. The following year, the Falcons travelled to New York in the playoffs, to take on the Giants. It was an embarrassing performance for the whole team, but Ryan led them to 0 points! Their only two points came via a safety. Ryan again threw for only 199 yards, 0TD, and 0INT.

Ryan is one of the games best young quarterbacks, and if he continues to build on last year's success then he'll be alright. But I need to see more than one year at that level for me to move him up the rankings.

Projections: 4,500 yards, 31 TD, 12 INT

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

QB No. 9: Russell Wilson

And now we arrive at Seattle's own Russell Wilson. The savior for Seattle sports. Never has this city been this excited about the team's quarterback, certainly not since I've been alive. The tough part about this ranking was to be able to put my bias aside and look at all quarterbacks through the same lens. I love Wilson. There's virtually no one else I'd rather have. That's how big an impression he made during his rookie season.

Wilson's rookie season began slightly differently than Andrew Luck's or RG3's. Wilson found himself in a direct QB competition in camp. In fact, Matt Flynn was seen as the QB for 2012 since the Seahawks paid him in the offseason. But Wilson eventually took the job from both Flynn and Tarvaris Jackson. RG3 and Luck both had the job handed to them in camp. Of course, they were light-years better than their backups. Wilson proceeded to throw for 3,100 yards, 30 total TD, 10 INT, and 489 rushing yards by the end of the year.

The first few weeks were rough however. Pete Carroll treated Wilson like he was a rookie. Limiting the number of throws he made in a game. Limiting part of the playbook, only dialing up simple plays for the young QB. But when the Seahawks were forced to throw more to match Tom Brady in the 6th game of the year, Wilson was up to the task. He threw for 293 yards, 3TD, and 0INT, while leading the Hawks to an upset win.

The real change came in Week 9, when it seemed like the restraints were lifted from Wilson's game. From week 9 on, Wilson threw for 1,600 yards, completing 66.8% of the passes, accounted for 20 total TD, and only threw 2 INT! And most importantly, he led the Seahawks to 7 wins in the final 8 games, and the playoffs. You never know what you're going to get from rookies in the postseason, and Wilson seemed a little overwhelmed in his first game against the Redskins. The stats don't look great from that game, but just the fact that he led them back from a 14-point deficit is impressive enough. The following week against the Falcons probably was Wilson's most impressive performance of the year. In a hostile atmosphere in Atlanta, Wilson threw for 385 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, with 60 rushing yards and a rushing TD. The Seahawks came back from 20 points to take the their first lead with 30 seconds left. Unfortunately, all Seattle fans know the rest.

Regardless, Wilson showed much growth in his full rookie season. He accomplished so much more than normal rookies accomplish. Especially getting to play in two playoff games. I love Wilson for his accuracy, his elusiveness, and most importantly his knoweldge of the game. He seems to be in the same mold as a Peyton Manning. A "football junkie". Someone who endlessly watches game tape and works to get better. I believe his "smarts" alone separate him from fellow rookies Andrew Luck and RG3.

Projections: 4,300 yards, 38 total TD, 13 INT