QB No. 13: Matthew Stafford

Lucky number thirteen. Or maybe not so lucky in the case of Matthew Stafford. Stafford has truly seen the ups and downs of the NFL game over his first four seasons.

He was thrust into the starting job as rookie but suffered through the season as the talent around him was atrocious. His season ended in late December with a knee injury. The following season Stafford once again felt the injury bug, injuring his throwing shoulder in the season opener. He only played three games that year. But in 2011, Stafford and the Lions seemed to put it all together. We finally saw the talent that made Stafford the number one overall pick. He became the second-youngest quarterback to throw for 5,000 yards in a season, and he led the Lions to the playoffs for the first time since 1999. He actually matched Drew Brees throw for throw in the Wild Card game, until late in the 4th when he threw a couple of costly picks. Last season was a major dissapointmnet in most people's eyes as the Lions underachieved, and Stafford regressed into a more innaccurate, turnover-prone QB (Stafford's final stats: 4,900 yards, 20 TD, 17 INT).

But when I look at these rankings I ask myself, "Who do I most want to have on my team, at the quarterback position, entering this season?". Maybe I'm too high on Stafford. He's really only produced one fantastic year over his four years. But I look at his talent. His explosive arm. His Jay Cutler/Ben Roethlisberger-esque guts. Then I look at the guys I ranked slightly below Stafford. I love his throwing talent compared to a Cam Newton or Colin Kaepernick. Plus, I've seen more of Stafford than a guy like Caepernick (again, prove it for more than 10 games. At least give me a full season, Colin). And then there's a Schaub and a Rivers. And I truly believe that this guy has more talent than either of them.

Listen, I understand Stafford makes too many risky throws at times. He's like Cutler in that regard. His decision-making definitely could improve. But I also have to look at the situation he's been in with Detroit. Throw out the first year. That was a lost cause from the start. Unfortunately you have to throw out year two as well, since he couldn't play. But in his first true, healthy year, and with talent around him, Stafford led the team to the playoffs. And last year, the Lions defense was just as bad as it always has been, plus they had no running game and their wide receivers were dropping like flys due to injury, besides Megatron. The bottom-line is that I believe in this guy's talent, I do think he is a "tough" QB that fights through injuries, but he needs to prove that he can continue to stay healthy, as well as improve his decision-making if he wants to climb up the list.

QB No. 14: Cam Newton

So now we come to Cam Newton, third year quarterback for the Carolina Panthers. If you read my previous article on Colin Kaepernick, then you'll see a lot of the same stats and arguments in this piece. Sorry. Just had to make a comparison yesterday and set the record straight.

Cam Newton dazzled in his rookie campaign, completing 60% of his passes while throwing for just over 4,000 yards, 21 TD, and 17 INT. Oh, and he rushed for 706 yards and an incredible 14 TD! Last year, he and the Panthers got off to a horrible start, losing six of their first seven games. During that stretch Cam posted a 5:8 TD-INT ratio. He had a 100+ passer rating only twice, and three times his passer rating was under 60. Plus, his immaturity was shining through. He was often seen on the sidelines isolated, with a towel around his head, giving off the appearance that he was pouting. His demeanor angered some of his teammates and the media began attacking his character, as well as his play on the field.

But then something changed. I'm not sure what is was, or when it occurred. Over the final nine games, the Panthers went on to win six of those. Now, after a 1-6 start, one would have thought Cam and the Panthers would've folded the tent. They did not. Two of the six wins were extremely impressive. They first beat the Washington Redskins on the road 21-13, a game in which Cam outplayed the new, exciting, and prolific rookie RG3. Then, in the second weekend of December, Carolina beat down an Atlanta team that would go on to claim home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. In my opinion, it was Newton's best game of the season because of what he did, and who he did it against.

So although many people believe Newton regressed last year, I choose to look at how he closed the season, and have come away impressed. In those last nine games, Newton passed for 2,168 yards, 14 TD, 4 INT while rushing for 436 yards and 5TD. Like I stated earlier, Cam and the Panthers could have folded the tent. But they didn't. Which speaks to a growth in maturity, and in leadership from Cam Newton. Now, he's still woefully inaccurate at times, and will eventually need to learn to avoid taking SO many hits. But I still liked what I saw to end the season, and I'm expecting another big step forward this season.

Projections: 4,100 yards 26 TD, 15 INT, 600 rush yards, and 7 rush TD

QB No. 15: Colin Kaepernick

A lot of people may be up in arms over this ranking. Kaepernick dazzled upon taking over the 49ers QB job, leading them not only to the playoffs, but to the Super Bowl. All he did was make plays, adding a dynamic element to the 49ers that seemingly made them unstoppable. He set the single-game record for most rushing yards by a QB in the Divisional round of the playoffs against the Green Bay Packers with 181 yards. So why the low ranking?

Allow me to be skeptical for a minute. I'd like to use this column to do a comparison between Kaepernick and another "running" QB you might be familiar with.

Player A: In 8 games: 1,725 yards, 10 TD, 3 INT, 63% completion, 304 rush yards, and 3 Rush TD
Player B: In 9 games: 2,168 yards, 14 TD, 4 INT, 58% completion, 431 rush yards, and 5 Rush TD

Player A is Kaepernick. Player B is Cam Newton, a guy many believe had a down year last year, and a QB that Jaws put at No. 18 on his list. Point of order: Newton's numbers are the final 9 games of his season, when most people said he looked like Cam from his rookie season again. The accuracy is something that Kaepernick holds an advantage in, but other than that, I don't see anything definitive besides straight-line speed, which I don't believe matters too much when comparing these quarterbacks.

My point is that I think people are being "prisoners of the moment". They remember Kaepernick because he took over a Super Bowl contender, (yes with Alex Smith they were contenders anyway), played well, and appeared in a Super Bowl. What does Cam Newton look like in the minds of many? "A guy who didn't play as well as he did in his rookie season, didn't win many games for the Panthers, and we stopped caring about Cam around December."I'm not a believer in elevating a quarterback just because he's surrounded by great talent, unless he absolutely deserves it. See Matt Schaub

From what I see, Cam matches up very favorably with Kaepernick. He doesn't nearly have the same talent level around him as Kaepernick does. Most believe the Panthers are quite awful. Yet, Cam managed to lead the Panthers to 6 wins over their final 9 games, including wins against the Redskins, Falcons, and Saints in a shootout to end the year. It wasn't all gravy for Kaepernick last year. Remember that Sunday night game against the Seahawks? Of course you do! The Rams and Cardinals gave him fits as well. And then the playoffs arrive and everyone loses their minds when they see what Kaepernick did to the Packers and Falcons. Both those defenses, especially the Packers, were HORRIBLE! What happenned when he faced a stout, prideful defense in Ray's final ride, in the Super Bowl?

Now I like Kaepernick. I think he is a special talent. But part of me, ok most of me, says "alright do it again for a full season." He hasn't even played a full year, and people are moving him into the top ten quarterbacks. And why? Because that team around him was a Super Bowl team? All I'm saying is give him some more time. If he plays the same way in 2013, then I'll be happy to move him up next season.

Projections: 3,900 yards, 24 TD, 11 INT, 500 rush yards, and 4 Rush TD

QB No. 16: Philip Rivers

Philip Rivers comes in at number 16 on my pre-season NFL quarterback rankings. The general feeling I get is that people don't believe Rivers is that good anymore. It's true, he had a fairly disastrous 2012 season, throwing for only 3,600 yards with 26 TD and 15 INT. If I were ranking quarterbacks strictly after last season's performances, then Rivers would clearly be outside my top 20. But these rankings aren't solely based off of last year. Sure, it's a "what have you done for me lately" league. But you also have to use good judgment. Use the eye test. Analyze stats, and see how players actually get their stats.

The biggest reason for last year's debacle in my opinion was the ineptitude of the supporting cast around Rivers. First and foremost, the offensive line was atrocious, allowing 49 sacks. He also had lost his best receiving option in Vincent Jackson to Tampa Bay, and saw former star TE Antonio Gates turn into a shell of his former self. Each of these reasons contributed to Rivers forcing more throws into tight coverages, and really just making poor judgments overall. He accounted for 28 turnovers, the most by any quarterback in the NFL. His throws were woefully inaccurate at times, and it seemed he didn't have his normal zip on the ball. Now, the lack of talent around him could be a viable excuse, but truly great quarterbacks don't need loads of talent around them to succeed. Take Tom Brady for example. For many years, the Super Bowl years for New England, most people had no idea who the receivers were that Brady was throwing to (Deion Branch? Troy Brown? David Givens?). What last year proved was that Rivers needs help, like most quarterbacks, but the biggest concern is that he resorts to high-turnover tendencies when things aren't right around him.

But I believe in Rivers. I admire his guts and leadership qualities, which were certainly evident in his playoff appearances. In fact, Rivers is well known for playing the entire 2007 AFC Championship game on a torn ACL. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune said, "To go out there and put his knee, and utlimately his career, on the line. It has to go down as one of the gutsiest performances." You also have to love that Rivers has never missed a game in his NFL career due to injury.

So, yes, last year was awful for Rivers. Perhaps with the departure of Norv Turner, and his aggressive down-field passing attack, Rivers can become more accurate and smarter with the throws he makes. People forget that for several years he was considered a top-10 QB, and I don't think his game has deteriorated so much to the point where he can never regain that status. The bottom line for me is that Rivers, with equal talent around him, is better than Schaub, or Dalton, or Cutler with that same talent. And I think that's been proven over the years.

Projections: 4,200 yards, 29 TD, and 13 INT

QB No. 17: Matt Schaub

This one may shock some people considering Jaws put this man at QB No. 9 on his quarterbacks list. But Matt Schaub appears at number 17 on my list. I was baffled, stunned, and a little outraged when I saw Schaub's placement on Jaws' list. I'm sorry, I don't get it.

Let's start with the positives. The Houston Texans were a perfect spot for Matt Schaub to land a starting QB job. The team has now built up an elite running game, led by the steady Arian Foster, and a strong defense. The Texans focus is on the ground game, and their passing game consists mainly of play-action passing. Schaub fits this system well. He's not a high-turnover QB, he executes play-action effectively, and he's a great front-running quarterback. That is, when he has the lead, he'll                                                                                       do well to protect it and close out the win.

But here's my main issue with Schaub. I think his success is directly tied to the supporting cast around him. In other words, I think people (Jaws) give too much credit to Schaub, when in fact the running game and defense have more to do with Texans victories than Schaub. There was a reason Schaub was a backup quarterback for several years. He's just a game manager.

Let's analyze this a little more closely. I went back and studied games in which the Texans were involved in close wins and losses. Nine such games existed in 2012. First, let's frame this by saying most people believe that Schaub is a pretty accurate QB. His 64% completion rate last year suggests as much. But in those nine games, games where the running game and defense didn't carry the Texans to a win, Schaub's completion rate fluctuated. In those nine games, Schaub had a 59% completion rate with 12 TD and 12 INT. My point is that these are the games where the QB needs to step up his play, yet Schaub could not. Elite quarterbacks are able to carry their teams when necessary, whereas game managers aren't capable of that. Additionally, Schaub's performances in the postseason this past year are simply average. He "managed" the Texans to a low-scoring playoff win against the Bengals, but couldn't keep up with the fast-paced offense of the New England Patriots in the Divisional Round.

Matt Schaub is definitely a quality starting quarterback in the NFL. Put him in the right situation, like the one he is in now, and he can succeed. But the problem is, if you're truly a good quarterback, you can succeed in any situation. And I don't believe that is the case with Matt Schaub.

Projections: 4,200 yards, 25 TD, and 11 INT

QB No. 18: Jay Cutler

Jay Cutler appears as the 18th best starting quarterback in the NFL on my list. From the time Cutler became the man for the Denver Broncos, I had much respect for the guy. He had a big arm, and could make all the throws...Blah, blah, blah. What did it for me, though, was the fearlessness I saw in him. I've always respected him for that. He carries himself with a certain arrogance, a belief that he is the best quarterback, and can make any throw. He's willing to take immense punishment, but get back up and make the next play. He can "win" you games, unlike the previous two quarterbacks on my list, who are more "game managers".

However, there are still a lot of deficiencies with Cutler that prevent him from being ranked higher on my list. Although Cutler can "win" you games, he's nearly as likely to "lose" you games instead. Cutler has been a turnover machine much of his career, routinely throwing 14+ INT in a season. Plus, he fumbles way too much (24 times in four years with Chicago). Some of that could be blamed on the offensive line, who have allowed Cutler to be sacked 113 times in the last three years. But some of that is on Cutler himself for holding onto the ball way too long, looking to make the spectacular play. He makes too many risky throws, that pay off at times, but more often than not, fail miserably.

The other thing with Cutler is that for all his "talent", he's only made one Pro Bowl. Additionally, since coming to Chicago, Cutler's only managed one playoff victory, despite having a very talented defense backing him up. Now, it's true that until 2012, Cutler didn't have a truly viable option in the passing game other than his RB Matt Forte. But even when he got Brandon Marshall this past year, the Bears still couldn't make the playoffs.

I don't mean to rip the guy. Again, I actually like Jay Cutler. His toughness, arrogance, willingness to make the tricky throws, and fearlessness are all things I admire. But he's also wreckless. Which leads to him not being able to stay on the field for his teammates for a full season (hasn't played a full 16 games since his first year in Chicago). And the bottom line is that he commits too many turnovers and bone-headed mistakes for me to rank him higher.

Projections: 4,100 yards, 28 TD, and 15 INT

QB No. 19: Andy Dalton

Andy Dalton comes in at number 19 on my top 20 NFL starting quarterbacks list. After a solid rookie campaign, Dalton was expected to take the next step in year two. The pieces were there; a solid running game, an elite wide receiver, and a fairly stout defense. However, Dalton didn't really make that leap in year two. 

His final statistics in 2012 were pretty similar to 2011, although he threw for seven more TD and 300 more yards. The bad news: he threw three more interceptions. He actually appeared to be taking that step through his first 11 games. But he regressed in his final five games, throwing only four TD while committing seven turnovers! 

And then the playoffs arrived. Coming off a disastrous playoff game a season ago against the Houston Texans, throwing 0 TD and 3 INT, Dalton looked for redemption facing the same opponent. Unfortunately, Dalton looked even more pathetic in his second go-around. He completed only 46% of his passes, while throwing for only 127 yards, 0 TD, and 1 INT. 

Now, you're probably thinking how I could even rank him this high after hearing all of that. It's true, I believe he has to prove a lot this coming season. But it still says a lot that in his first two years in the league, he did lead his team to the postseason with an underwhelming roster, in regards to their talent. Again, he showed well for the first 11 games of last year. During that stretch Dalton looked incredibly accurate, completing 64% of his passes while really taking care of the ball well. That's the biggest difference from his first 11 games to his final six. Perhaps he hit the wall towards the end. But this year he has no excuses. He's got one of the premier wide receivers in the game in A.J. Green. The team also drafted Tyler Eifert from Notre Dame, as well as dynamic RB Giovani Bernard. Dalton's got the talent around him, but is he poised to put it all together?

Projections: 3,900 yards, 31 TD, and 15 INT