NFL Pre-Season Picks-AFC West

Hey guys. Thanks for all the positive feedback on my Quarterback rankings list. I'm back today to deliver my preseason picks for each division and ultimately give my postseason predictions.

Today we'll start with the AFC West. A season ago this division was no contest. The Denver Broncos, with the newly acquired Peyton Manning, were the class of the division finishing 13-3 and six games ahead of second-place San Diego. For the 2013 season, this is what I forecast:

1. Denver Broncos 13-3

Clearly Denver is still the class of this division. Peyton Manning is one of the best quarterbacks still in the game. They already had a potent offense, but added to it with the signing of Wes Welker and the drafting of Montee Ball. The defense was a top-flight unit last year, and probably should be again this season. Although the loss of Elvis Dumervil, in addition to Von Miller for six games, will greatly reduce their pass rush. But the fact remains, with how great the offense is, this defense will be playing with the lead in most games, which benefits them tremendously.

2. Kansas City Chiefs 8-8

A year ago the Kansas City Chiefs were the worst team in the NFL, finishing at 2-14. Much of that had to do with atrocious quarterback play and shoddy coaching from Romeo Crennel. Enter Alex Smith and Andy Reid. Sure, Alex Smith will never live up to his number one pick billing, but he's still much better than the awful combination of Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn. And Andy Reid is the type of coach who can "remake" or "revive" if you will a quarterbacks career. It also doesn't hurt that he has an elite RB(Jamaal Charles) and probably the best WR he's ever played with in Dwayne Bowe. The defensive unit has many more playmakers than the average fan knows about. When Eric Berry is on the field, he is an elite, impact safety. They also boast other playmakers in Tamba Hali, Brandon Flowers, and Derrick Johnson. Expect this team to improve, and possibly fight for the final wildcard spot.

3. San Diego Chargers 5-11

The Chargers have fallen from grace in recent years. Gone are the glory days with LT, Vincent Jackson, Norv Turner, Marty Schottenheimer, and dare I say Philip Rivers. Rivers has clearly declined as his talent has vanished around him. This current Charger team features an uninspiring offense, with mediocre WR, a talented yet extremely brittle RB (Ryan Mathews), and a horrid offensive line. This offense won't be able to win many shootouts. But the problem is, they'll most likely be in shootouts because the defense is also just average at best. Sure, Manti Te'o and Dwight Freeney are welcomed additions, but the secondary is way too weak and will be torched by solid quarterbacks.

4. Oakland Raiders 2-14

There's not much to say with this team. Other than the fact that they have the absolute WORST roster in the NFL. When people get excited about the prospects of Terrelle Pryor starting, a guy taken in the Supplemental Draft who is horribly inaccurate, you know you're in a rough situation. They literally have NO ONE on their roster that fans should be excited about. Please don't come at me with Darren McFadden.

QB No. 1 on Top 20 Countdown!

Here it is folks! After nearly three long weeks of rankings, my number one QB is......Aaron Rodgers! Hard to imagine that it was actually a tough choice whether to keep Brett Favre or move on with the younger Rodgers six years ago, after seeing the level at which he plays right now. To me, Rodgers offers the best combination of accuracy, arm strength, and athleticism from the quarterback position.

Rodgers has started for the Packers for five full seasons now, and is already a 3-time Pro Bowler, as well as Super Bowl Champ and MVP. Oh, and he's also won league MVP back in 2011. He's posted an astounding 3.8 TD:INT ratio for his career. And in four of the five seasons Rodgers has passed for greater than 4,000 yards, with the lone exception in 2010, missing out by less than 80 yards. All he did to follow up his Super Bowl victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers was go out and win MVP in 2011, posting ridiculous numbers (4,900 total yards, 48 TD, and only 6 INT!).

Many consider last season a down year for Rodgers. A down year? The dude accounted for 41 TD, 4,500 yards, and only 8 INT! Just goes to show how high expectations have become for the Green Bay QB. There are questions about his leadership, but I don't see it. Sure, sometimes Rodgers is caught on the sideline ripping a teammate. Big deal? Tell me which quarterback DOESN'T do that, and I'll tell you that that quarterback is not elite. Last year he was undoubtedly average by his standards in the playoff loss to the 49ers. There was no excuse for his performance, yet I got news for you. He could've thrown for 600 yards and 6TD and they still would've lost. That's because the Packer defense couldn't stop the nosebleed that Colin Kaepernick was dealing them.

Again, what separates Rodgers from the other elite QB to me is his combination of arm strength, athleticism, and accuracy. Sure, Brady, Peyton, and Brees have the accuracy, arm strength, and the intelligence, but Rodgers is way more athletic than any of them, and can avoid way more sacks. Plus, he is the one QB in the top 4 who is still in the prime of his career. That's the key distinguisher. Again, I love Brady, Peyton, and Brees, but they've all seen their best years come and go. What's scary is that Rodgers still might be able to top his incredible 2011 season, because again, it's only his 6th season as the Packers QB.

Projections: 4,700 yards, 44 TD, 9 INT

Thanks to those that followed my ranks daily over the past three weeks, I appreciate it, and I look forward to getting back to a new topic soon. Leave comments to any of the articles I've posted and I'll respond! Peace out.

QB No. 2: Tom Brady

Truly one of the most difficult choices to make was deciding who will go number one. Do I go with the veteran, 3-time Super Bowl Champion, and one of the top five greatest quarterbacks of all-time? Or do I go with the younger, big armed QB, who also happens to be a Super Bowl Champion? In the end, I decided that the number two spot belongs to Tom Brady.

Brady orchestrates the highest-octane offense in all of football, and executes it to perfection with incredible efficiency and poise. The Patriots take pride in running the most amount of plays per game in the NFL. All that time with the football demands that you be a good protector of it, which Brady is. He's been top five in passing attempts the last two seasons, yet has only thrown 20 INT total, among the lowest of starting NFL QB during that span.

And then, of course, there's what Brady has accomplished over his career. He's a 2-time MVP, 3-time SB champion, 2-time SB MVP, 8-time Pro Bowler, and record-holder for single-season passing TD with 50. But he's not invincible. And if we're nitpicking, he hasn't won a Super Bowl since 2004. He's been to two since that time. But his team was upset by the New York Giants in both Super Bowls. He's actually played poorly more often then not in playoff games since 2008. And if we're being perfectly honest here, Brady was outplayed by Joe Flacco in back-to-back playoff seasons, yet the Patriots won the first meeting because of...Lee Evans...Billy Cundiff, a story for another time.

But alas, that's truly nitpicking. Brady is the most accurate, most efficient, and honestly might be the most competitive QB in the NFL. Together, that's a winning formula. Sure, he hasn't hoisted the Lombardi trophy since '04, but Super Bowl victories are hard to come by. I think it just says enough that he always has his team playing in January EVERY SINGLE SEASON. He doesn't have the nod over my number one QB, but I wouldn't fight anyone who would argue for Brady at one.

QB No. 3: Peyton Manning

My number three quarterback coming into the 2013 season is going to be Peyton Manning. Manning has seen it all in his 16-year career. He is a 4-time MVP, a 12-time Pro Bowler, and perhaps most importantly a Super Bowl Champion, and MVP in that particular SB. He's thrown for over 4,000 yards in 12 of the 14 seasons that he's actually played in. His MVP seasons were spectacular, especially the '04 campaign. That year he threw for 4,500 yards while tossing 49 TD and only 10 INT! (At the time, he broke the single-season TD record)

The bugaboo for Peyton has always been the postseason. I don't think many people could argue for someone other than Peyton Manning as the greatest REGULAR SEASON QB in NFL history. Maybe Brett Favre. Maybe. But for all his greatness, and everyone acknowledges his greatness, he's only managed nine playoff wins compared to eleven losses. Dumbfounding, no? And it's not as if the talent hasn't been great around him. Okay, the first couple of playoff appearances are excusable. But once the years of Harrison, Wayne, and Clark arrived, he couldn't ask for better weapons. In his peak years in Indy, '02-'10, he could only manage two Super Bowl appearances. I honestly can't figure out why, but he does seem to be worse in playoff games. He seems to make more mistakes then we're used to seeing, more turnovers. Even last year, with the Broncos, Manning and the Broncos were heavily favored against the Baltimore Ravens at home. He played fairly well, but threw two costly INT. One of which set up the game-winning FG for Baltimore. This season the Broncos added Wes Welker, who should contribute to an already stacked WR corps. The pressure is once again on Manning because the Broncos are heavy favorites to reach the Super Bowl, and one of the favorites to win it all.

Let's not get it twisted. I love Peyton Manning. It's just that when you're ranking guys in the top three you have to nitpick a little bit. The only reasons I can dock Peyton from being number one or two have to do with his age/injury concerns over his neck, as well as his playoff performances. Both in the past and recent appearances. This guy is without question a first-ballot Hall of Famer, one of the "good" guys in the sport, and personally one of my favorite QB I've had the privilege to watch over the years. But for the 2013 season, I believe there are two guys that I'd rather have.

Projections: 4,750 yards, 44 TD, 13 INT

QB No. 4: Drew Brees

My number four quarterback entering the 2013 season is Drew Brees. Since arriving in New Orleans, all Brees has done is led the Saints to their first ever Super Bowl title, thrown for 5,000 yards in a season three times, and broken Dan Marino's single-season passing record. His revival with the Saints established him among the game's elite quarterbacks.

Brees orchestrates one of the highest-octane, most efficient offense we've seen in pro football. He squashed the notion that little guys can't be quarterbacks at a high level. Standing at just six feet tall, Brees is still one of the most, and in my opinion the most, accurate quarterbacks in the NFL today. He's had four seasons of 67% completion rate or more since arriving in New Orleans, and holds a career rate of 65%. In that Super Bowl run back in 2009 Brees proved he could come up clutch in the biggest games, and threw 8 TD to 0 INT, while completing 70% of his passes, during their 3-game run. In the Super Bowl, he out-shined Peyton Manning, and completed 32 of 39 passes for a whopping 82% completion rating.

In the years since the Super Bowl, Brees has had to try and overcome the Saints defense, which has routinely been putrid. He's had tremendous statistical years, including the 5,476 yard, 46 TD 2011 season, but only one playoff win since that Super Bowl season. Perhaps it is because of the leaky defense, but it seems like Brees is taking more chances in the last few years, which has led to a staggering increase in his interception totals. He's totaled 55 INT the last three seasons! But again, I put much of that on him having to do so much for a mediocre football team.

There's no question that this guy is elite, but he's still not better than the top 3.

Projections: 4,700 yards, 41 TD, 15 INT

QB No. 5: Eli Manning

Here we are, the Top Five QB I would want entering the 2013 season! Eli Manning is my number five quarterback. Eli is a two-time Super Bowl champion, two-time SB MVP, and three-time Pro Bowler. He's already accomplished a heck of a lot in his 10 years in the league.

Eli Manning's greatest work has come in the postseason. In particular, the 2007 and 2011 postseasons. Prior to the 2007 postseason, Eli was viewed as a mediocre QB, with a lot of hype to live up to. During that first Super Bowl run, Manning threw 6 TD to only 1 INT, and perhaps made one of the most clutch throws in Super Bowl history (the David Tyree catch).

Some thought he would've carried that success into the regular season next year, and for years to come, but he sort of continued to put up decent, yet unspectacular stats. That is, until the 2011 season. That year, Manning shattered his single-season passing yard mark, with 4,900 yards. He also threw 29 TD compared to 16 INT. And in the postseason, Eli was even more amazing than his first go-around. They rolled through the Falcons and Packers before surviving the 49ers and Patriots to win the Super Bowl. Eli, who won SB MVP again, threw for 1,200 yards, 9TD, and only 1INT throughout the Super Bowl run.

Now Eli did have a down year a season ago, failing to reach 4,000 yards passing, and failing to reach the defending champs to the playoffs at all. Injuries played a factor for the Giants undoubtedly, especially on defense. His main target Hakeem Nicks was nicked up all season long, and also missed three games. The Giants season was baffling to say the least. It seemed like they'd play their best ball against the best teams, crushing the Packers, Saints, 49ers, as well as surviving the Buccaneers and Redskins. But they also lost many games that they were favored to win. And Manning followed that trend as well. You still see some inconsistency in Eli's game, and he's still turnover-prone. He makes too many risky throws. But the bottom line is that he comes up clutch more often than not. Even in a down year last year, he still proved it (week 2 against Tampa Bay: down 14 late in the fourth, Eli led three straight TD drives to win the game). Now, after a disappointing season, I expect Manning and the Giants to bounce back in a big way.

Projections: 4,500 yards, 32 TD, and 14 INT

QB No. 6: Ben Roethlisberger

Coming in at number six is "Big" Ben Roethlisberger. He enters 2013 after a somewhat down season for him and the Steelers. They failed to reach the postseason, and Big Ben was well under 4,000 yards passing. Yet, he was pretty efficient with those throws, throwing 26 TD to only 8 INT.

Roethlisberger ranks highly on my list for what he's accomplished, and for how difficult a matchup he is every single week. First off, he is a two-time Super Bowl champion. Yes, the first one he escaped with. Lucky son of a... well you know. In his second Super Bowl against the Cardinals, Roethlisberger played solid, if unspectacular. He lost in his third Super Bowl appearance, but just getting to three Super Bowls in 10 years is an accomplishment. The most difficult part about matching up against Roethlisberger has to be his ability to avoid sacks and continue to extend the play and make plays down the field. Nobody does it better in the game today. It may not translate into stats, but rest assured, these "small" plays, are winning plays. They keep drives alive. They create more scoring chances. Plus, they keep opposing defense on the field, which over four quarters will eventually wear them down.

Now, a big question mark with Big Ben is always his health. He never seems to be able to play a full 16 games. Part of that is due to what I stated above; his ability to take hits, stay on his feet and make plays down the field. Part of it is due to him holding onto the football way too long, and taking way too many sacks. The other thing is that he's been on historically "run-first" teams, with great defenses backing him up. A little bit like Flacco in that regard. Not expected to do as much as the ELITE QB, thus his stats never look that spectacular.

But there's no question. This guy makes plays when it matters most. He is a two-time Super Bowl champion. He is one of the most difficult quarterbacks to game-plan against. When push comes to shove, there are few I'd rather have in a winner-take-all situation.

Projections: 3,800 yards, 26 TD, 12 INT

QB No. 7: Joe Flacco

Coming in at number seven on my quarterback countdown is reigning Super Bowl champion Joe Flacco.  Flacco had a magical postseason run with the Ravens last year, one that earned him a huge pay day. Now the question is, will he be able to build off last year's great postseason and take the step into the elite, or at least upper echelon of quarterbacks?

Let me start by saying that I believe he is on the Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger track. He's a guy that many have ridiculed as not being even a capable starting quarterback in the past. I could've put him as a high as number five on my list, but I will defer slightly to the other two, more veteran quarterbacks. That supernatural run last year had to have proved many of his doubters wrong.

Let's put some things in perspective. Joe Flacco is now entering his 6th season, the year after winning his Super Bowl. Eli Manning was entering his 5th season after winning the Super Bowl. But take a look at Manning's stats his first FIVE full seasons. Pretty mediocre, and dare I say slightly worse than Flacco's. Manning threw for 119 TD and 72 INT in five years. Flacco threw for 102 TD and 56 INT. And believe it or not, Flacco threw for slightly more yards than Eli. Big Ben entered his 6th season after winning his 2nd Super Bowl. Again, compare the stats of their first five years. Flacco's stats edge Big Ben's in every category in their first five years. And we all know that Big Ben didn't really do anything when the Steelers won that first Super Bowl against Seattle.

My point is that I think Flacco is on an eerily similar path to those two guys. Both of them saw major statisitical leaps after they won those Super Bowls, and after years 5 and 6. He's been in the 3,600-3,800 yard range. I see that leaping into the 4,000+ area. People want to discredit Flacco and say "he played with the great Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, who saved many a games for Flacco." Funny how those same people in about Week 10 last year were saying this Ravens team had no shot because "their defense isn't what it once was". I'm sorry, you can't have it both ways. You were right to criticize the defense because it's true, it wasn't nearly as good as it used to be. In fact, in every statistical category the Ravens D ranked out as middle-of-the road. And for whatever it's worth, once the Ravens made the switch to Jim Caldwell as the OC, Flacco had more free reign, and played lights-out football, with the exception of the first game under Caldwell in week 15 versus the Broncos.

The bottom line for me is that Flacco still struggles with accuracy at times, and I worry about who he's going to be throwing to this year, after losing Pitta and Boldin. No question, that "Mile High Miracle" play bailed Flacco and the Ravens out last year. If not for that play, we'd still be looking at Flacco in a fairly mediocre way. But it happened. Hmmm... kinda like the NBA Finals Game 6 mad scramble at the end, and Ray Allen somehow knocks down the game-tying three with only a few seconds left. Were it not for that shot, we'd also be looking at Lebron James differently. But I digress. That's sports. Miracles happen. Move on.

Projections: 4,200 yards 27 TD, 13 INT